Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10     65.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  20.5  16.5  19.6  17.2  15.2  16.0  18.8  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  32.0  33.0  36.0  32.0  29.0  30.0  35.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  20.0  22.0  21.0  23.0  10.0  10.0  -2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  67.0  64.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.8  20.5  16.5  19.6  17.2  15.2  16.0  18.8  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.4%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.1%       20.3%       13.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        8.6%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        8.6%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.6%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%       20.7%       13.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        8.0%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.4%       15.3%       13.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        3.8%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       11.4%       11.3%       11.3%