Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     64.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  19.1  22.1  20.1  18.2  17.9  23.1  19.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  34.0  35.0  33.0  34.0  40.0  46.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  34.0  38.0  32.0  10.0  22.0 -15.0   9.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.6  19.1  22.1  20.1  18.2  17.9  23.1  19.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        8.3%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        8.7%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        2.3%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%        7.0%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        1.4%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h       11.5%        6.4%        9.0%