Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80     63.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  22.3  20.5  19.0  23.5  27.4  22.7  24.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  34.0  36.0  41.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  43.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  30.0  39.0  54.0  19.0  -2.0   1.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  57.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.4  22.3  20.5  19.0  23.5  27.4  22.7  24.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       11.4%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.4%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        9.7%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        2.5%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        6.7%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.9%        4.1%        6.0%