Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00     63.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  19.0  17.3  22.3  26.2  23.0  24.5  29.4  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  29.0  35.0  38.0  45.0  43.0  40.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  39.0  25.0  27.0   0.0   0.0 -15.0  -9.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.2  19.0  17.3  22.3  26.2  23.0  24.5  29.4  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       18.1%       11.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        6.3%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        6.3%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.5%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       16.9%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        5.3%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        8.4%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        2.3%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.0%        6.5%        7.8%