Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20     63.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  17.2  21.6  24.0  21.8  23.2  27.8  27.4  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  30.0  43.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  10.0   6.0  -5.0   8.0 -26.0 -15.0 -15.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.5  17.2  21.6  24.0  21.8  23.2  27.8  27.4  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        3.1%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%       20.9%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        8.6%        5.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        8.6%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.0%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       21.3%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        8.0%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%       10.5%        8.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        3.1%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h       10.1%        9.3%        9.7%