Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90     63.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  21.5  24.2  21.3  22.9  27.7  27.6  25.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  39.0  47.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   0.0  15.0   9.0 -28.0 -24.0 -21.0   4.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.8  21.5  24.2  21.3  22.9  27.7  27.6  25.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        5.5%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       11.3%       28.8%       20.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%       15.0%       10.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       15.0%       10.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        6.0%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%       24.9%       15.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%       11.0%        7.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%       12.3%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        3.9%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        6.9%        8.6%        7.8%