Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     62.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  25.1  20.3  21.9  25.4  25.6  21.7  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  43.0  44.0  43.0  44.0  47.0  46.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  23.0  27.0 -21.0 -41.0 -29.0  14.0 -28.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.4  25.1  20.3  21.9  25.4  25.6  21.7  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.1%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       20.8%       13.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        9.5%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        9.5%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%       16.1%        9.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        5.9%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%       10.5%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        2.8%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.3%        6.0%        6.2%