Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122019 190927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10     58.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  32.0  29.9  29.6  28.7  30.8  29.4  29.9  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  22.0  23.0  24.0  25.0  23.0  19.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0 -33.0 -29.0  -8.0  -2.0 -12.0  19.0  27.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  45.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  42.0  45.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  32.0  29.9  29.6  28.7  30.8  29.4  29.9  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        1.3%        1.5%