Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     24.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  17.4  21.3  24.5  25.7  25.1  25.1  19.9  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0  11.0  16.0  17.0  18.0  16.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.1 115.1 112.9 108.6 106.5 104.4 106.5 106.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0 102.0 122.0 144.0 122.0  42.0  64.0  66.0  F  F  F VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.9  17.4  21.3  24.5  25.7  25.1  25.1  19.9  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.0%        6.4%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       17.2%       29.8%       23.5%
 30kt / 24h        8.5%       16.0%       12.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       16.0%        9.9%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%        6.0%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        8.3%       30.2%       19.2%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       15.0%        9.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%        8.7%        8.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%        5.2%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.8%        9.8%        7.8%