Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40     26.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  21.2  26.9  24.0  24.5  24.5  20.0  16.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  16.0  17.0  17.0  15.0  13.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.1 107.9 103.6  99.4  99.4  99.4 101.5 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0 134.0 138.0 117.0  50.0  28.0  42.0  93.0  F VF VF  F  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.8  21.2  26.9  24.0  24.5  24.5  20.0  16.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.3%        6.1%        6.7%
 25kt / 24h       16.6%       24.2%       20.4%
 30kt / 24h        8.7%       12.2%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%       12.2%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%        5.0%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%       21.2%       14.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%        9.3%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.5%        6.9%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%        3.7%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        6.3%        5.5%