Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     27.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  22.8  24.7  23.8  25.0  18.5  16.9  17.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  17.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  14.0  14.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.9  93.6  89.4  87.4  87.4  89.4  91.5  93.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   164.0 178.0  86.0  29.0  13.0  45.0  86.0  88.0 VF VF  F  N  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  22.8  24.7  23.8  25.0  18.5  16.9  17.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.6%       10.3%       14.0%
 25kt / 24h       26.4%       30.7%       28.5%
 30kt / 24h       16.7%       19.2%       18.0%
 35kt / 24h       14.5%       19.2%       16.9%
 40kt / 24h       14.5%        9.1%       11.8%
 45kt / 36h       13.4%       25.2%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        7.5%       12.8%       10.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.8%        8.1%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%        4.3%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        5.4%        4.4%