Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20     28.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  24.5  23.2  24.6  18.7  19.6  22.0  23.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  13.0  14.0  26.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.6  89.4  87.4  87.4  89.4  91.5  91.5  93.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   155.0 115.0  33.0  34.0  53.0  81.0  88.0  84.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.6  24.5  23.2  24.6  18.7  19.6  22.0  23.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.0%        4.3%        6.7%
 25kt / 24h       11.3%       15.5%       13.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.0%        7.5%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%        7.5%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%        3.1%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.7%       14.3%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%        5.8%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        4.4%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        1.9%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        2.7%        2.7%