Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60     30.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  23.2  23.3  17.9  17.5  19.5  20.2  22.9  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  14.0  12.0  15.0  27.0  26.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.4  87.4  87.4  89.4  91.5  91.5  91.5  89.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0  80.0  62.0  74.0 102.0 114.0 118.0 130.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  23.2  23.3  17.9  17.5  19.5  20.2  22.9  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.6%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%        8.3%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        3.5%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.5%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.3%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%        7.5%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        3.4%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        1.1%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        2.0%        3.3%