Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     31.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  22.9  17.8  16.3  15.3  17.5  22.0  22.7  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  14.0  13.0  15.0  27.0  26.0  22.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.4  82.4  84.4  86.5  86.5  86.5  84.4  82.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   121.0 108.0 125.0 105.0  92.0 112.0 158.0 151.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.2  22.9  17.8  16.3  15.3  17.5  22.0  22.7  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.0%        3.2%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h       13.5%       16.9%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h        7.9%        9.6%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%        9.6%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%        4.0%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h       11.8%       14.8%       13.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.2%        6.2%        5.7%
 55kt / 48h       12.3%        5.9%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        8.7%        2.1%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h        6.9%        3.2%        5.0%