Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     33.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  18.2  14.2  14.6  17.2  21.1  21.3  21.7  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  12.0  17.0  28.0  25.0  23.0  16.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.4  74.4  76.5  76.5  76.5  74.4  72.4  72.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0  93.0  97.0  93.0 128.0 163.0 149.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.5  18.2  14.2  14.6  17.2  21.1  21.3  21.7  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.6%       18.2%       29.9%
 25kt / 24h       50.5%       50.3%       50.4%
 30kt / 24h       37.7%       48.2%       42.9%
 35kt / 24h       37.1%       48.2%       42.7%
 40kt / 24h       37.1%       27.9%       32.5%
 45kt / 36h       35.1%       39.8%       37.4%
 55kt / 36h       20.7%       26.0%       23.4%
 55kt / 48h       20.4%       13.1%       16.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%