Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     34.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  16.6  14.4  16.4  21.1  21.4  24.0  24.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  18.0  29.0  20.0  12.0  10.0   8.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.4  71.5  71.5  69.4  67.4  67.4  65.5  67.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0 115.0  85.0 113.0 159.0 157.0 120.0  48.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.8  16.6  14.4  16.4  21.1  21.4  24.0  24.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       54.0%       25.0%       39.5%
 25kt / 24h       54.6%       54.2%       54.4%
 30kt / 24h       47.7%       54.2%       50.9%
 35kt / 24h       47.7%       54.2%       50.9%
 40kt / 24h       47.7%       34.5%       41.1%
 45kt / 36h       35.7%       35.1%       35.4%
 55kt / 36h       20.5%       22.1%       21.3%
 55kt / 48h       15.4%       10.1%       12.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%