Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     36.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  15.7  17.3  22.1  26.3  28.3  27.2  20.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  27.0  17.0  12.0   9.0   8.0  10.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.5  66.5  64.4  62.4  62.4  62.4  62.4  64.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0  96.0 100.0 137.0 118.0 128.0  54.0  73.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.9  15.7  17.3  22.1  26.3  28.3  27.2  20.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       32.5%       16.3%       24.4%
 25kt / 24h       35.2%       32.5%       33.9%
 30kt / 24h       27.8%       28.5%       28.1%
 35kt / 24h       27.8%       28.5%       28.1%
 40kt / 24h       27.8%       14.9%       21.3%
 45kt / 36h       23.7%       14.2%       18.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%