Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50     37.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  14.7  20.9  22.9  25.6  25.5  25.1  21.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  19.0  13.0  10.0   8.0   9.0  14.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.5  61.5  59.4  57.4  57.4  57.4  57.4  59.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  69.0 115.0 132.0 128.0  46.0  77.0  72.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.4  14.7  20.9  22.9  25.6  25.5  25.1  21.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.6%       17.0%       23.8%
 25kt / 24h       30.5%       27.6%       29.1%
 30kt / 24h       21.8%       23.5%       22.6%
 35kt / 24h       17.8%       23.5%       20.7%
 40kt / 24h       17.3%       11.1%       14.2%
 45kt / 36h       24.8%       12.4%       18.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%