Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     38.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  20.2  22.0  23.0  26.5  26.2  24.4  27.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  12.0   9.0   8.0  10.0  15.0  22.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.4  57.4  57.4  57.4  57.4  57.4  59.4  61.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0 142.0 154.0 103.0  24.0  96.0  83.0  33.0  F VF VF  F  U  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.4  20.2  22.0  23.0  26.5  26.2  24.4  27.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.3%       11.3%       15.3%
 25kt / 24h       23.4%       22.0%       22.7%
 30kt / 24h       14.2%       18.4%       16.3%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       18.4%       14.6%
 40kt / 24h       10.3%        7.5%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h       18.2%        8.8%       13.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%