Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20     39.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  23.4  23.6  24.8  27.2  26.3  29.3  33.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   7.0   6.0  10.0  21.0  35.0  35.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.4  32.4  32.4  32.4  32.4  34.4  34.4  36.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   150.0 164.0 104.0  58.0 111.0  68.0  40.0  18.0 VF VF  F  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  23.4  23.6  24.8  27.2  26.3  29.3  33.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.7%        8.8%       21.2%
 25kt / 24h       16.7%       10.1%       13.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%