Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     40.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  24.9  26.2  26.3  26.9  29.7  31.2  33.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0  10.0  18.0  32.0  34.0  35.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.4  27.4  27.4  27.4  29.4  29.4  31.5  31.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   179.0 138.0  53.0 106.0 112.0  32.0  19.0  38.0 VF VF  N  F  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.8  24.9  26.2  26.3  26.9  29.7  31.2  33.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.3%        0.0%       11.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%