Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     43.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  29.5  33.7  31.3  31.7  33.2  29.3  31.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  33.0  30.0  20.0  15.0  13.0  13.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.4  36.5  36.5  38.6  40.7  42.9  47.3  49.6 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  53.0  38.0  23.0  18.0  37.0  63.0  87.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  61.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.9  29.5  33.7  31.3  31.7  33.2  29.3  31.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%