Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40     44.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  29.3  30.7  34.6  31.2  30.4  32.7  29.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  35.0  26.0  18.0  14.0  13.0  12.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.5  38.6  38.6  38.6  40.7  45.1  49.6  49.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  40.0  32.0  21.0  24.0  65.0  81.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  61.0  64.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  67.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.2  29.3  30.7  34.6  31.2  30.4  32.7  29.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%