Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     44.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  33.0  35.5  35.1  34.0  32.6  30.3  22.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  29.0  20.0  15.0  13.0  13.0  11.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.5  46.5  48.6  50.7  55.1  57.3  59.6  57.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  44.0  22.0  39.0  71.0  95.0  47.0  25.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  64.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.4  33.0  35.5  35.1  34.0  32.6  30.3  22.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.5%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.8%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%