Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     44.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  34.6  34.0  32.7  33.4  28.8  21.2  19.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  17.0  15.0  15.0  13.0  11.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         48.6  48.6  50.7  52.9  57.3  59.6  57.3  52.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  18.0  40.0  72.0 102.0  54.0  35.0  47.0  N  U  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.7  34.6  34.0  32.7  33.4  28.8  21.2  19.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.7%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%