Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90     45.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  35.3  34.3  33.4  28.0  26.4  22.2  21.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  15.0  13.0  10.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.6  45.7  47.9  52.3  52.3  52.3  47.9  43.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  38.0  58.0 113.0  61.0  28.0  39.0  72.0  U  N  N  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.5  35.3  34.3  33.4  28.0  26.4  22.2  21.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        1.2%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        2.0%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%