Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50     44.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  33.4  29.2  27.4  24.3  21.8  23.1  25.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   9.0   9.0   8.0  12.0  12.0   1.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.3  32.3  32.3  27.9  21.5  15.5   8.0   2.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   133.0  47.0  54.0  57.0 112.0 109.0 114.0 158.0 VF  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.0  33.4  29.2  27.4  24.3  21.8  23.1  25.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%