Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.40     44.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.9  29.4  25.6  22.4  21.8  20.8  24.7  33.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0   8.0  12.0   9.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.3  52.3  47.9  41.5  33.5  28.0  21.0  13.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  42.0  57.0 109.0 106.0 105.0 140.0 158.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.9  29.4  25.6  22.4  21.8  20.8  24.7  33.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%