Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10     43.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  24.6  25.6  25.2  20.8  22.6  30.1  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0  12.0  10.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.3  57.9  51.5  43.5  38.0  32.7  23.0   4.3  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  39.0 116.0 105.0 115.0 155.0 133.0 119.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  49.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.1  24.6  25.6  25.2  20.8  22.6  30.1  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%