Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     43.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  24.2  24.9  22.4  23.0  34.2  39.7  46.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  12.0   7.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.7  56.5  46.6  41.2  36.0  26.5   7.0  -4.1  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  89.0 109.0 117.0 154.0 140.0 133.0  95.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  47.0  40.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.2  24.2  24.9  22.4  23.0  34.2  39.7  46.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.5%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%