Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.40     42.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  21.5  24.5  25.5  35.6  44.0  48.2  60.3  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.4  53.5  44.4  39.3  27.2  10.9  -3.4 -18.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  89.0 108.0 139.0 139.0 115.0  83.0  76.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  59.0  53.0  47.0  41.0  41.0  39.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.1  21.5  24.5  25.5  35.6  44.0  48.2  60.3  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.6%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%