Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 190930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30     42.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  23.7  23.8  39.8  44.3  47.0  63.1  71.2  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.6  41.2  34.3  23.6   5.9  -5.9 -21.6 -33.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  97.0 120.0 162.0 153.0 127.0  80.0  46.0  N  F  F VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  53.0  46.0  40.0  39.0  40.0  39.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.8  23.7  23.8  39.8  44.3  47.0  63.1  71.2  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        1.3%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%