Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 191001 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.30     41.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  24.9  39.1  44.4  48.2  61.6  72.0  67.5  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.0  28.0  19.4   5.9  -6.7 -21.0 -31.5 -36.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0 108.0 149.0 139.0 139.0 102.0  64.0  54.0  F  F VF VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  52.0  45.0  38.0  39.0  37.0  38.0  42.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.6  24.9  39.1  44.4  48.2  61.6  72.0  67.5  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        0.6%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%