Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 191001 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.70     40.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  37.2  43.5  48.7  59.4  67.7  67.1  58.7  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.0  25.8   9.8  -0.9 -17.7 -26.9 -31.3 -35.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   131.0 156.0 132.0 115.0 115.0  72.0  64.0 103.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  45.0  38.0  40.0  41.0  42.0  46.0  51.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  37.2  43.5  48.7  59.4  67.7  67.1  58.7  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.2%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%