Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 191001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30     39.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  46.1  51.7  64.5  68.4  67.3  64.5  37.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.4  10.9  -1.7 -16.6 -25.8 -30.4 -34.9 -36.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   143.0 114.0 117.0 135.0  73.0  70.0  86.0  52.0 VF  F  F VF  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  36.0  38.0  38.0  39.0  42.0  48.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  38.4  46.1  51.7  64.5  68.4  67.3  64.5  37.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%