Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 191001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.90     36.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.2  54.1  65.7  71.1  71.2  59.1  35.3  20.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         10.9   0.0 -16.0 -25.3 -30.0 -35.1 -36.6 -38.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0 125.0 140.0  73.0  91.0  84.0  38.0  46.0  F  F VF  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  38.0  37.0  39.0  43.0  50.0  51.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  46.2  54.1  65.7  71.1  71.2  59.1  35.3  20.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%