Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 191002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.90     31.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        64.9  71.5  67.5  59.6  43.7  30.8  36.7  50.1 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -14.9 -22.7 -26.8 -30.8 -31.9 -33.5 -33.3 -33.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0  80.0  96.0  67.0  58.0  24.0 -32.0 -49.0  F  N  F  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  39.0  45.0  52.0  51.0  46.0  46.0  43.0 VU VU VU  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  64.9  71.5  67.5  59.6  43.7  30.8  36.7  50.1 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%