Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132019 191002 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.00     28.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        71.8  69.3  74.7  46.0  39.9  50.2  56.6  64.7 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -10.8 -15.0 -19.4 -21.6 -22.1 -23.0 -21.2 -20.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  84.0  72.0  62.0  13.0 -15.0 -37.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  40.0  45.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  44.0 VU VU VU  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  71.8  69.3  74.7  46.0  39.9  50.2  56.6  64.7 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%