Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142019 191011 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.20     69.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  30.5  36.4  33.0  36.2  36.1  29.1  31.1  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0  10.0  13.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.8  60.8  52.9  51.7  52.9  51.7  45.9  38.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  58.0  33.0  41.0  21.0   3.0   8.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  38.0  38.0  40.0  43.0  44.0  43.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.7  30.5  36.4  33.0  36.2  36.1  29.1  31.1  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%