Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142019 191012 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.00     68.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  28.4  33.3  34.5  30.6  31.0  35.1  34.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.4  59.2  63.0  60.4  59.2  59.2  60.4  59.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  40.0  18.0  13.0  22.0  37.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  37.0  38.0  40.0  41.0  38.0  36.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.8  28.4  33.3  34.5  30.6  31.0  35.1  34.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%