Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142019 191012 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.30     67.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  30.1  30.9  27.9  30.7  36.5  34.1  38.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.9  59.2  56.7  56.7  53.2  49.8  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  22.0  13.0  30.0  39.0  -9.0  -3.0 -17.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  39.0  41.0  41.0  40.0  38.0  36.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.1  30.1  30.9  27.9  30.7  36.5  34.1  38.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%