Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142019 191013 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.40     64.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  29.1  29.9  35.8  33.0  36.2  40.4  45.9  U  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.2  57.9  55.5  52.0  54.3  46.7  30.4  21.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  41.0  36.0 -23.0 -12.0   0.0  33.0  13.0  U  N  N VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  42.0  42.0  39.0  37.0  36.0  37.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.6  29.1  29.9  35.8  33.0  36.2  40.4  45.9  U  N  N  U  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%