Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL142019 191013 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.50     61.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  33.1  30.8  33.1  38.2  41.3  44.7  48.4  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.7  50.7  53.8  45.0  28.4  22.7  36.2  34.1  U  U  U  U VU VU  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0 -19.0   3.0  -5.0  20.0   9.0  17.0 -11.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  41.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  41.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.7  33.1  30.8  33.1  38.2  41.3  44.7  48.4  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%