Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152019 191014 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     19.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  13.5  14.9  16.6  20.4  28.1  34.0  35.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   6.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 129.6 122.9 116.5 108.5 101.2  91.1  85.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  23.0  29.0  28.0  50.0  32.0  48.0  39.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.8  13.5  14.9  16.6  20.4  28.1  34.0  35.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.8%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%       14.7%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.1%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        5.0%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       14.1%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        5.4%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        1.4%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        1.2%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%