Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152019 191015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     20.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  16.9  18.2  21.6  29.3  35.8  42.0  51.7  F  F  F  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 116.5 106.6 101.2  92.7  88.0  83.6  83.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  17.0  16.0  35.0  44.0  50.0  33.0  47.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.9  16.9  18.2  21.6  29.3  35.8  42.0  51.7  F  F  F  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%