Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152019 191015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10     20.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  22.4  26.4  33.2  34.7  38.7  49.6  52.3  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 104.8  96.0  88.0  82.2  79.4  79.4  80.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  36.0  47.0  60.0  65.0  52.0  47.0  49.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  44.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.7  22.4  26.4  33.2  34.7  38.7  49.6  52.3  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%