Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152019 191015 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     21.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  26.1  29.6  31.0  33.4  40.8  45.9  51.1  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5 103.0  96.0  89.6  86.5  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  42.0  48.0  68.0  60.0  65.0  48.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  47.0  45.0  43.0  40.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.8  26.1  29.6  31.0  33.4  40.8  45.9  51.1  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%