Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL152019 191016 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     23.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.2  34.9  39.1  50.5  54.1  58.6  63.4  62.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7  88.0  86.5  86.5  86.5  86.5  86.5  86.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  58.0  37.0  44.0  35.0  38.0  29.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  44.0  41.0  39.0  36.0  34.0  33.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.2  34.9  39.1  50.5  54.1  58.6  63.4  62.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%