Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162019 191017 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     95.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  42.1  44.6  42.9  54.4  58.1  50.1  50.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  64.0 107.0  50.0  44.0  23.0  23.0   3.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 120.1  94.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0  38.0   2.0  74.0  74.0  37.0  18.0  47.0  F  N  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  62.0  54.0  48.0  46.0  51.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  38.6  42.1  44.6  42.9  54.4  58.1  50.1  50.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.8%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        5.5%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%