Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL162019 191018 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     94.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.4  49.3  48.7  54.5  58.0  52.0  50.1  51.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  83.0  53.0  48.0  24.0  28.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6 124.6 105.5  84.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  15.0  78.0  80.0  46.0  11.0  57.0  36.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  60.0  53.0  47.0  46.0  49.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  U VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  44.4  49.3  48.7  54.5  58.0  52.0  50.1  51.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%